Temperatures to rise as rainfall activity eases over Pune; IMD forecasts light, scattered showers

Pune: The city is likely to see a gradual rise in daytime temperatures and a reduction in rainfall activity over the next few days as monsoon conditions weaken across most of Maharashtra.An official from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Friday, “There’s no warning for ghat areas from Saturday. From Saturday onwards, skies are likely to turn partly cloudy, becoming generally cloudy towards afternoon and evening, with only very light to light rain expected.”According to the IMD’s local forecast, maximum temperatures are expected to climb gradually across the city, touching around 29°C-30°C by early next week, while minimum temperatures are likely to remain in the 22°C-25°C range.Weather expert Abhijit Modak said a break in monsoon condition now appears to be setting in across much of Maharashtra as the monsoon trough shifts towards north India.“The northward displacement of the monsoon axis is expected to reduce rainfall activity over Konkan and the Sahyadri Ghat region, with relatively drier air gradually replacing the moisture-laden monsoon flow at lower and mid-levels. In the absence of any significant synoptic system near Maharashtra, rainfall is likely to become less widespread and more scattered through the coming weekend,” he said.Modak said such a lull is not unusual after the exceptionally wet July, during which most major reservoirs in the state reached 90% to 100% of their storage capacity.“An eight to 10-day break during August broadly matches the climatological behaviour of the monsoon. However, the timing of the next revival remains uncertain and will depend on the formation of the next low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and, more importantly, its track. A system moving westwards would favour renewed rainfall over Maharashtra, while one tracking farther north towards Bihar, a common August pattern, would have limited impact on the state,” he said.He added that there is a possibility of a modest increase in rainfall around Aug 10-12 if the present axis over Rajasthan induces a southward-extending trough or other favourable synoptic interactions. Otherwise, the prevailing break-like conditions could continue for a longer period.“For now, passing showers are likely to continue, particularly over the Sahyadri Ghats where local orographic uplift will continue to generate rainfall. However, the widespread daily rainfall events exceeding 100 mm that were seen repeatedly during the active phase of the monsoon are expected to become much less frequent until the next significant monsoon surge develops,” Modak said.