Stock market outlook: RBI policy, earnings and Middle East tensions to set Dalal Street mood this week

After ending last week on a strong note, stock market is headed for a crucial week with a host of domestic and global events set to shape investor sentiment. Reserve Bank of India’s interest rate decision, ongoing US-Iran conflict, crude oil prices and a fresh round of quarterly earnings will be among the key factors driving Dalal Street.RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, scheduled from August 3 to 5, will be the biggest domestic event on investors’ radar. Market participants will also keep an eye on India’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, while June-quarter earnings from several large companies are expected to drive stock-specific moves.“This week is expected to be eventful, with the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting (August 3-5) emerging as the key domestic trigger. Market participants will also closely monitor the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, with several largecap and midcap companies scheduled to announce their results,” Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, told PTI.Alongside domestic developments, investors will keep a close eye on the situation in the Middle East. Analysts said any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict and its impact on crude oil supplies through key shipping routes could influence market sentiment.“Globally, developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict, stability of crude oil supplies through key shipping routes will remain important drivers of market sentiment,” Mishra said.Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that geopolitical developments would remain a major focus for investors.“Investor attention this week will remain firmly focused on geopolitical developments in West Asia, with any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict likely to have an immediate impact on crude oil prices and broader global risk sentiment,” he said.The earnings season will also gather pace, with DLF, Bharti Airtel, ONGC, Hero MotoCorp, LIC and State Bank of India set to announce their June quarter results.Siddhartha Khemka, head of research, wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said domestic factors continue to support the market, but investors will closely watch the RBI policy, PMI data, crude oil prices and developments in the Middle East.“Indian equities are expected to trade with a positive bias as healthy domestic macros, and a strong Q1FY27 earnings season continue to support investor confidence. Market participants will closely monitor the RBI’s monetary policy decision, India’s Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data, along with developments in crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions in West Asia,” Khemka said.Foreign investor activity will also remain in focus after overseas investors turned net buyers in July, ending four straight months of selling. They invested Rs 20,200 crore in Indian equities during the month, supported by attractive valuations, improving corporate earnings and easing global headwinds.Last week, BSE Sensex ended 2,034.87 points, or 2.67% up, while NSE Nifty closed 616.15 points, or 2.59% higher.